Image Source: DALLE-3, via ChatGPT Suppose that the year is 2035 and America is engaged in counterinsurgency operations in the Middle East: would autonomous drones favor the insurgents or counterinsurgents? Scholars such as T.X. Hammes, Paul Scharre, and Sarah Kreps have argued that autonomous military systems (AMS) will tend to favor conventionally “weaker” or poorer … Continue reading From Sling and Stone to Autonomous Drone? Key Questions for Determining Whether Autonomy Favors Davids or Goliaths
Author: Harrison Durland
From Laboratories to Language Models: Can AI Support Rigor in the Jungle of Policy Analysis?
Image Source: DALL·E 3 (Via ChatGPT) Policymakers navigate deep uncertainty when dealing with national security and foreign policy dilemmas. Compared to some fields of engineering and traditional “hard sciences” (e.g., physics, medicine), intelligence analysts and political scientists are often unable to test their claims via rigorous experiments or other well-defined and reliable procedures. As a … Continue reading From Laboratories to Language Models: Can AI Support Rigor in the Jungle of Policy Analysis?
ARROS: A Universal Framework for Scrutinizing Policy Pros and Cons
Image Generated Using MidJourney AI Policymakers and researchers frequently grapple with complex questions of the form “will taking X action produce Q effect—and how good/bad is Q?” For example, lobbyists or researchers may claim that semiconductor export controls will accelerate China’s indigenization of semiconductor manufacturing, accepting Finland into NATO will increase the likelihood of nuclear … Continue reading ARROS: A Universal Framework for Scrutinizing Policy Pros and Cons
Dr. Policymaker or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Question “Market Irrationality”
Image Created by MidJourney AI The passage of the CHIPS and Science Act and economic competition between the United States and China over strategic technologies have reinvigorated the exploration of “industrial policy” as a means to bolster national security. With such attention comes an onslaught of ideological rhetoric, references to the “valley of death”, and … Continue reading Dr. Policymaker or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Question “Market Irrationality”
Complexity Demands Adaptation: Two Proposals for Facilitating Better Debate in International Relations and Conflict Research
Introduction Why do democratic states rarely fight one another? Does the use of mechanization/armor generally make counterinsurgents less effective? When (if ever) does the threat of Western sanctions deter foreign aggression? Will economic decoupling with China significantly increase the likelihood of great power war? Many natural and applied scientists can rely on rigorous empirical methods … Continue reading Complexity Demands Adaptation: Two Proposals for Facilitating Better Debate in International Relations and Conflict Research