AUKUS: Impossible to Break – Strengthening Deterrence in the Indo-Pacific

Image Source: Australian Insitute of International Affairs

Announced in September 2021, AUKUS is a trilateral security partnership between the United States, Australia, and the United Kingdom. The ‘big ticket’ is Australia’s acquisition of at least eight nuclear-powered, conventionally-armed submarines (SSNs). However, AUKUS is more than improved capabilities. Specifically, AUKUS broadens joint military exercises and rotations, increases interoperability, and expands cooperation in emerging technology, all strengthening the credibility of the partners’ deterrence in the Indo-Pacific. The physical, human, and opportunity cost of AUKUS show that all partners are willing to sacrifice resources elsewhere to demonstrate their commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific. 

Strengthened Deterrence

AUKUS is crucial for enhancing what the United States calls “integrated deterrence,” or a holistic approach across the defense ecosystem that seeks to expand U.S. and allied capabilities to deter competitors from undermining the security environment. Built on a shared strategic culture that is impossible to break, the AUKUS partnership is expanding in physical capability – reducing any maritime advantages adversaries might have in the Indo-Pacific. While questions remain about the logistics – U.S. and Australian workforce shortages, Australia’s substantial expenditures for the submarines, and the risk of submarine detection technology outpacing the UK’s delivery of the first SSN-AUKUS in the late 2030s – AUKUS ensures that partners can deter aggressors and “act in their sovereign interests free from coercion.”

Joint Exercises and Rotations

Pillar One of AUKUS focuses on providing Australia with its first SSN, which enables Canberra to participate in joint U.S.-UK exercises with the same capability. Before Australia fields its first domestic-built SSN, likely in the early 2040s, it will have a rotational presence of one UK Astute class submarine and four U.S. Virginia class submarines beginning in 2027. This presence enables all three partners to participate in joint exercises in the Indo-Pacific, which improve combat readiness should they be called into action. Moreover, the U.S. National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) in December 2023 authorized US$3 billion in military training and equipment to be sent to Australia to improve its physical capabilities. Without American investments, British manufacturing, or Australian shipbuilding capacity, Australia would not gain the physical submarine capability necessary for participating in advanced joint exercises. These joint exercises and rotations are a premier way of demonstrating the combined military strength of the partners in the region, which sends adversaries a message that the benefits of any aggression are not worth the cost – for aggression will be met with overwhelming capabilities.

The physical capability is only part of the story, however. The knowledge that comes with operating an SSN is crucial because it enables Australia to operate with the same doctrine and technical expertise as the U.S. and the UK. For example, Australia now embeds military and civilian personnel within the U.S. Navy and the British Royal Navy to train its sailors to operate SSNs and its civilians to support operations. This embedded training puts Australia on the same doctrinal and technical plane as the United States and the UK, enabling it to better participate in joint exercises and expand warfighters’ capabilities in the Indo-Pacific. Moreover, over 700 American and a small number of British personnel will work in Western Australia to support the rotational presence beginning in 2027. The physical grounding the rotations provide is critical to fine-tuning joint operations because it gives sailors experience in the region AUKUS intends to secure. These rotations and joint exercises are crucial for expanding the shared strategic culture between the partner countries, which presents adversaries with a rigid, indestructible partnership and raises the cost of aggression in the region.

Interoperability

AUKUS also enhances the partners’ interoperability. While Pillar One provides the physical submarine capability, Pillar Two focuses on developing advanced and interoperable capabilities in electronic warfare (EW), command and control (C2), and artificial intelligence (AI), among others. Interoperable C2 is crucial for projecting power in the Indo-Pacific, for it enables partner countries to operate on the same page in a fast-moving, contested security environment. While cooperative efforts to operationalize AI enhance interoperability, they also allow for more rapid and expanded development of these capabilities. AUKUS will further develop the Australia-U.S. combat system, including a shared vertical launch system, to improve interoperability. This collaboration increases the partners’ ability to effectively operate together in the Indo-Pacific and project power to deter adversaries. 

The NDAA also strengthens interoperability within AUKUS. Not only did the NDAA enable the sale of three Virginia class submarines to Australia, but it also established a new information-sharing caveat specific to AUKUS. This enables partners to share information more efficiently and safely. Further, the NDAA exempts most technology transfers – assuming Australia and Britain have export controls similar to the United States– from licensing requirements, which offers Canberra and London premier access to the U.S. industrial base. The ease of information-sharing and technology transfer ensures partners share the same intelligence, technology, and analytical capabilities. When facing adversaries, interoperability is critical to responding rapidly and successfully to threats, which keeps adversaries from making threats in the first place for fear of being unable to follow through, given the shared strength of the AUKUS partners.

Emerging Technology

A lesser-known aspect of AUKUS is its expanded cooperation in developing emerging technologies, such as quantum, hypersonic, undersea, and biotechnologies. Not only is this crucial at the moment, as China remains the leader in 19 of the 23 technologies listed in Pillar Two. For example, the United States and Australia are expanding their collaboration in artificial intelligence to better track Chinese submarines and process large amounts of data. These advanced capabilities serve as a deterrent to PRC aggression, which recognizes that AUKUS closely monitors its operations and possesses capabilities to respond quickly. Collaboration on emerging technologies gives the partners speed and scale to increase their undersea capabilities’ reach, range, and lethality – all necessary for enhancing deterrence in the Indo-Pacific.

Impossible to Break

AUKUS broadens joint military exercises and rotations, increases interoperability, and expands cooperation in emerging technology, all leveraging the partners’ close relationship to strengthen deterrence in the world’s most contested region. AUKUS represents an unshakable partnership based on a shared strategic culture that adversaries may threaten at their own risk. It is impossible to break.