Image Source: Bloomberg
The November 2023 Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in San Francisco spurred renewed collaboration against the global fentanyl crisis. Notably, U.S. President Joe Biden met with Chinese President Xi Jinping and Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador in separate bilateral meetings, intending to mend deteriorated diplomatic relations that in recent years hindered efforts to combat transnational drug manufacturing and trafficking.
In 2022, fentanyl overdoses killed over 70,000 people in the United States alone, making it the leading cause of death in Americans aged 18 to 45. These staggering death rates that derive from an illicit opioid overwhelmingly manufactured abroad – mainly via international supply chains through the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and Mexico – deem the fentanyl crisis a critical national security concern. Resultantly, the Biden Administration declared synthetic opioid trafficking a national emergency in 2021, sparking urgent efforts to curate suitable foreign policy solutions.
The Role of Mexico and the PRC
The PRC is the top supplier of illicit fentanyl’s main ingredients, which are known as precursor chemicals. Chinese distributors transport the chemicals globally, but Mexican drugmakers are the most common recipients and subsequently produce mass amounts of fentanyl. Illegal fentanyl is difficult to regulate as it is typically manufactured in underground laboratories abroad. These laboratories utilize illegal precursors, like the chemicals funneled from the PRC, and material procured from unregulated – but legitimate – chemical and pharmaceutical sources. Thus, the root of this American epidemic lies in a muddled global supply chain.
To help remedy the fentanyl crisis, bilateral partnership and cooperation with the PRC and Mexico emerge as an urgent imperative. However, fraught relations have plagued collaborative counter-narcotic alliances. In 2020, the United States placed the PRC’s Ministry of Public Security’s Institute of Forensic Science on a trade blacklist, citing its complicity in the alleged repression of and violence against the Uyghur population in Xinjiang. U.S. prosecutors also exposed cartel members within Chinese pharmaceutical and chemical companies who aided trafficking. In 2022, former U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan heightened tensions with the PRC, cutting off discussions on a range of U.S.-PRC issues.
However, with November’s summit, Biden and Xi agreed to work together to address the issue of precursor chemicals sustaining fentanyl production in Mexico. Biden officially lifted sanctions against the PRC’s Institute of Forensic Science, albeit without assurance that the institute would discontinue involvement in the Uyghur human rights crisis. Furthermore, Xi vowed to resume counternarcotics campaigns specifically against fentanyl and precursor chemical production, as well as drug smuggling and trafficking.
Likewise, Biden’s meeting with Obrador sought to rebuild fractured relations between the United States and Mexico. In 2020, U.S. officials arrested former Mexican defense secretary, General Salvador Cienfuegos, on drug cartel charges which were quickly dropped but nevertheless hampered U.S.-Mexico relations and dealt a blow to law enforcement cooperation. At the APEC summit, Biden and Obrador re-mended collateral efforts against trafficking at the U.S.-Mexico border, beginning with increased expansion of law enforcement and enhanced intelligence dissemination.
A Multifaceted Solution
The opioid epidemic has dominated U.S. policy and healthcare since the latter half of the 20th century, but the early days of the crisis spurred inadequate policy responses that failed to identify the root of the continued epidemic. Lessons learned since Nixon’s “War on Drugs” era reveal how the United States must continue to adopt a multifaceted foreign policy approach to combat illicit drugs like fentanyl.
Border security debates dominate political discussions surrounding drug trafficking. While Mexican drug cartels remain the leading supplier of fentanyl in the United States, studies show that the illicit material is largely transported legally across the border. In 2022, almost 90% of fentanyl trafficking convictions were American citizens, as Mexican criminals and drug cartels rely on them to smuggle illicit material over the border via legal ports of entry. As such, policy prescriptions solely targeting migrants, both legal and illegal, are ineffective in combating fentanyl trafficking.
Legislation that supports funding, training, and technology at legal ports of entry is required to properly stifle drug trafficking into the United States. For fiscal year 2024, Congress authorized $40 million to address fentanyl trafficking and combat transnational criminal organizations – the historic funding aims to bolster border security in a way that specifically targets opioid supply chains.
Ultimately, the solution to this urgent national security concern remains largely in the hands of foreign actors. Unfortunately, critics are skeptical that Xi will fully commit to the promises made during the APEC summit, and some question whether Beijing has the capacity to infiltrate China’s pharmaceutical and chemical industries to identify controversial players in the fentanyl business. On the other hand, the Sinaloa Cartel, one of Mexico’s leading drug cartels, signaled in October 2023 that it would shift away from fentanyl trafficking. The cartel indicated that efforts by U.S. and Mexican authorities hindered their operations. Time will tell whether such promises will come to fruition.
Nevertheless, shifting foreign policy, particularly via diplomacy, toward a collaborative international effort is the most viable route to combat fentanyl in the United States. Border security is only one consideration – diplomacy, economic considerations, and foreign relations all play a role. At the domestic level, leaders must continue to bolster communities by providing counter-overdose drugs, addiction treatment, and education on opioids. At the foreign policy level, as the United States enters an election year, politicians have the opportunity to prioritize the persisting national security threat the fentanyl crisis poses.