Image Source: Military Images
Romania has been affected by the dramatically deteriorated security situation in Europe, precipitated primarily by the specter of Russian imperialism. The first Russian occupation of Crimea in 2014 and the full-scale invasion of the entirety of Ukraine in 2022 brought national defense to the top of the political agenda. Due to its proximity to the Ukrainian battlefields and its role as a Black Sea power, Romania finds itself in the midst of a geopolitical hotbed. Against this background, the Romanian government launched a series of defense acquisition programs, which will dramatically expand the capabilities of the Romanian Army, also known as the Armata Română.
The Romanian military modernization effort is guided by the Armata 2040 (Army 2040) concept, inaugurated in 2020 and refined in 2022. The strategic concept revolves around four central components: budget, equipment, defense industry, and personnel. Romania has undertaken significant efforts to modernize and restructure its forces from expeditionary warfare towards more conventional warfare. However, each component also comes with unique challenges.
The first leg of Romania’s defense efforts is the budget. In the wake of the annexation of Crimea in 2014, the Romanian government realized the necessity to increase defense expenditure. In 2021, Romania surpassed the NATO 2% defense spending threshold, allocating 2,02% of GDP to its armed forces. Shortly after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Romania’s Supreme Defense Council (CSAT) concluded that a further increase of defense spending to 2,5% of GDP was necessary. Compared to 2023, Romania’s defense budget made another 25% jump in 2024, now at approximately EUR 8 billion. While this budget still falls short of the 2.5% target, it is important to note Romania’s significant GDP growth over the last decade skews the relative percentage of defense spending as Romania’s absolute defense investments in Euros have grown significantly. Furthermore, investments from the European Defense Fund supplement the Romanian defense budget, although the size of these supplements remains opaque.
Despite the impressive financial commitments, not all is well in Bucharest. First and foremost, the mere allocation of money does not translate into mission-ready capabilities. The Romanian Ministry of National Defense (MApN) has limited spending capacity. In 2023, only 6,2bn. EUR, around 80% of the budget, was spent. Complex defense programs require experienced personnel and developed bureaucratic governance structures, which are underdeveloped within the ministry. Currently, the MApN does not have the resources to allocate the additional funds to new programs effectively. The significant uptick in expenditure occurs after decades of underinvestment and stagnation. George Visan, Black Sea Security Program Coordinator at the Romanian Energy Center and expert contributor on Romanian defense issues writes: “The low level of defense spending has left its mark on capabilities as well as on the Defense Ministry’s ability to run complex and expensive defense programs.”
The Romanian government attempted to react to the bureaucratic deficiencies by establishing the Romanian Agency for Technological and Industrial Cooperation for Security and Defense (ARCTIS) in January 2024. This new agency aims to reduce bureaucratic friction and centralize processes, forming an important step in the right direction. Staffed by specialized personnel, this agency can work towards faster procurement, support research and development, and bring stakeholders together. However, as the agency is in its infancy, it will take time until it is fully operational.
Harder to address is corruption and rent-seeking in the Romanian defense sector. The flagship program of the Romanian Navy, the procurement of four corvettes, was canceled in August 2023 after persistent disagreements between the Romanian authorities and the French Naval Group tasked with constructing the ships, as the procedure had been marred in dispute, including allegations of corruption. However, the Romanian Anti-Corruption Agency (DNA) found no definitive evidence and closed the case. Overall, Romania has made significant progress in its fight against corruption, and continued efforts to tackle irregularities in the defense sector support Romania’s defense reinvigoration.
The equipment of the Romanian military, as the second leg of Armata 2040, is shedding its Soviet legacy. Prompted not least by the Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014, the government in Bucharest saw the need to modernize its defense apparatus. In 2017, ambitious plans were launched to replace aging – and subpar – Soviet systems instead, opting for NATO standards throughout the force. Romania became the first country in Europe to procure the now-famous High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS). Eighteen out of 54 units were delivered in August 2017, replacing outdated MLRS systems of Soviet production. Another major step forward for the Romanian Army is the acquisition of modern main battle tanks. In November 2023, the Defense Security Cooperation Agency greenlit a request from the Romanian Government to purchase 54 American M1A2 Abrams tanks. These modern main battle tanks will replace a battalion of inadequate TR-85 tanks based on a 1950s design. Other noteworthy acquisitions include Watchkeeper X drones, modern infantry fighting vehicles, and K9 Howitzers. The latter procurement deal has not been officially confirmed, although the Korean system is expected to be selected. Additionally, the most significant system Romania seeks to procure is the F-35 Lighting II. In August 2023, the Romanian MoND asked the Parliament to approve the purchase of 32 fighter planes. However, per the ministry, these planes are only expected to enter service in 2030.
The Romanian Naval Forces, operating partially outdated vessels, are the target of substantial modernization efforts. Plans exist to modernize the existing fleet and introduce two modern Scorpene-class submarines. However, as mentioned previously, the project to replace aging ships with critically necessary modern corvettes has failed, and no other efforts have been announced. Furthermore, Prime Minister Ciolacu recently questioned whether the procurement of the submarines is necessary. However, the Black Sea coastline will not be entirely defenseless, as the MApN is also investing in shore-based anti-ship missiles, which will serve as a powerful deterrent against unruly neighbors. Lastly, the Romanian military possesses a unique and noteworthy asset, the Danube Flotilla. This detachment of heavy riverine patrol boats is essential to securing Romania’s most important waterway. Yet this flotilla has not seen upgrades in decades, with its vessels fielding Soviet weaponry and systems, making them ill-suited for modern operations. The Navy could replace them with CB-90 fast combat boats or similar vessels, but no publicly known modernization proposals exist.
The primary issue in procuring modern equipment is the time it takes to incorporate new systems into the force, a factor not entirely under Romania’s control. Its acquisition program for the Abrams main battle tanks depends on American manufacturers’ ability to refurbish existing Abrams tanks and upgrade them to modern standards. Other customers, such as Taiwan, are also expecting deliveries, which means Romania will likely experience further delays. There are possibilities to speed up the process by transitioning from foreign procurement to domestic production. An expanded domestic production could prioritize deliveries for the Romanian Armed Forces, ideally reducing the time it takes to introduce new systems. However, the defense industry faces its own challenges.
The third pillar supporting the Armata 2040 strategy is the defense industry. The Romanian government presented ambitious plans to overhaul the state-owned defense company ROMARM, as it is the central domestic supplier of military equipment for the Romanian military. Wholly owned by the Romanian Ministry of the Economy, ROMARM produces everything from small-arms ammunition to armored vehicles and tanks. The government intends to bolster its defense industrial base by enabling technology transfers from abroad. Technology transfers are commonly achieved via so-called offset requirements, which mandate domestic industry involvement and occasionally direct technology transfer in arms deals. For example, when a country like Romania enters into a procurement agreement with a foreign defense contractor, it may mandate that the contractor establish production sites in Romania or form a joint venture with a Romanian company, including knowledge sharing and technology transfer. In Romania, the defense offset regulations were reformed in 2022 and again in 2023. While exemptions for offset requirements exist for government-to-government contracts, most of Romania’s new acquisitions fall under the Foreign Military Sales (FMS), severely limiting the possibilities for technology transfer and domestic industry involvement. Thus, Romania will likely opt for off-the-shelf procurement akin to the FMS rather than negotiate at length offset requirements with other governments or private partners.
However, there are sporadic cases in which Romania has managed to incorporate domestic production into defense programs. One example is the Piranha V infantry fighting vehicle, built entirely in Romania in cooperation with General Dynamics. Local companies are involved in the production process, further strengthening the industrial base. However, this is an isolated example, and it remains to be seen whether the procurement of other systems, the vast majority of which are not manufactured in Romania, will translate into a structural improvement of the defense industrial base.
Indeed, the Romanian defense industry is constrained by structural perils. The industry uses a substantial amount of energy, which poses a significant challenge in times of dramatically heightened energy costs. EU-funded programs could assist with introducing energy-saving technologies; however, their implementation will take considerable time. The Romanian defense industry also experienced a dramatic decline in its workforce. During the Socialist Republic of Romania, the arms industry employed 230,000 people and possessed substantial human capital. Today, the workforce is roughly 10,000 strong. Furthermore, economic inefficiencies plague ROMARM and its subsidiaries. The SOEs produce at a loss, whereas private companies have become competitive exporters of defense equipment. While full privatization may help the defense sector, it is bound to clash with national security interests, making it unlikely.
Despite these structural constraints, there are opportunities for the Romanian defense industry. Romania could utilize the pan-European push for reinvigorated defense to strengthen its own industry. One example is ammunition. Instead of producing 155mm shells, Romania is churning out 152mm caliber shells. While they have been useful in supplying Ukraine, they do not match the caliber of the new Romanian artillery. With the projected introduction of the K9 Howitzer, Romania transitions its artillery to NATO standard, making 152mm shell production obsolete. In this context, combined with the continued demand, there could be a window of opportunity to receive much-needed funding from partner countries to modernize the defense industry, contribute to the global supply of ammunition, and bolster domestic production capacity in the long term. In a first step, the European Commission approved the allocation of 47 million Euros towards building a new military powder factory in Romania on March 15th, 2024.
The fourth and final pillar of Armata 2040 is the personnel of the Romanian army. Romania is facing the same issues as many other European countries, namely that it is experiencing dramatic personnel shortages. Romania abandoned conscription, transitioning to an entirely professional force in 2006. This decision took place in the backdrop of a generally improving security situation at the time. Furthermore, Romania experienced a significant economic contraction after 1991, contributing to this military transition. Recently, however, both of these factors have changed. The security situation has deteriorated, and Romania’s GDP has recovered and vastly exceeded any previous levels. As the fourth pillar of the Armata 2040 modernization program, Romania is set to increase the size of its armed forces from approximately 80,000 nominal strength to 100,000 soldiers, as announced by the Minister of National Defense Angel Tîlvăr. A reintroduction of the draft appears necessary, especially given that out of the 80,000 positions, only around 72,000 were filled in 2023. While no official plans have been made public, reintroducing compulsory military service would be a critical step to fill the significant gap in personnel, according to the Romanian military analyst Aurel Cazacu. The analyst also stresses that salary increases and improved living conditions for the soldiers in barracks are needed to make military service more attractive. However, Romania just announced that it will construct the largest NATO base in Europe, which will have to be up to NATO standards. This may potentially serve as an opportunity to expand standards and house more Romanian troops at NATO facilities. In turn, the Romanian military must undertake continuous efforts to improve facilities, both to retain current personnel and to attract new recruits.
Overall, the Armata 2040 initiative and its four pillars embody an ambitious and substantial overhaul of Romania’s national defense. Romania has launched initiatives to address structural weaknesses and capability gaps in four sectors: budget, equipment, the defense industry, and personnel. However, the successful transformation of the Romanian Armed Forces will remain hard to judge. Romania is wrestling with the legacy of its Warsaw Pact military, and its defense industrial base will likely take decades to modernize. Despite these challenges, Romania can and should continue to take a proactive role in European security. The NATO Multinational Brigade South-East continues to play a vital role. As Romanian forces contribute significant force elements to this detachment, the ongoing modernization efforts directly support NATO’s resilience on the Eastern Flank. The vanguard role Romania has taken in the effort to support Ukraine, combined with its reinvigoration of national defense and several other Central-Eastern European countries beefing up their defense capability, may herald a shift of the center of gravity on the European continent.
The author would like to thank Professor Iulia-Sabina Joja, Ph.D. and Eoin Lazardis Power for their insightful comments on this article.