Image Source: Wall Street Journal
Across the Western world, right-wing political movements are on the rise. In the United States, this has manifested in an uptick of far-right extremist activity on the fringes of the U.S. political spectrum. Since 2016, far-right ideology in the United States has increasingly been a driver of extremist violence. In 2021, the documented rate of far-right extremist crime as a percentage of all extremist crime in the United States reached its highest levels since 1970, at approximately 85%. Primarily driven by the rise of violent far-right extremism, the United States has faced an escalation in domestic terrorist attacks compared to the last three decades. Underpinning the alarming shifts in extremist activities is the rapid evolution of the Internet and social media technologies, which have become the tools to facilitate extremist communications and radicalization endeavors across the United States.
The staggering rate of extremist behavior witnessed in 2021 underscores the momentous events of January 6th, 2021 – an occurrence widely regarded within the United States as a violent insurrection whose nefarious intent was to undermine a legitimate election. Much of the January 6 insurrection was planned and incited online and on social media platforms. Now, three years later, U.S. federal and state law enforcement entities continue to face significant challenges tracing and moderating politically extreme content online. In a time of political upheaval and increasing right-wing extremist activity, it is imperative that law enforcement studies trends of far-right extremist organizations on social media and the Internet anticipate potential illegal or violent activity and intervene effectively. To better prepare for the 2024 U.S. presidential election, law enforcement entities must take the time to understand historical right-wing Internet and social media strategies, reexamine initially overlooked warning signs from 2020-2021, and identify extremist social media patterns to take effective preventive action.
Since its creation, the Internet has been a tool for anti-government and far-right extremism. As early as the 1980s, racist and anti-government extremists such as the Aryan Nations identified the potential of the Internet for cost-effective instant communication across geographically disparate extremist cells. Even in the early years of social media, its use played a primary or secondary role in U.S. extremists’ radicalization and mobilization processes.
Though social media traditionally served as a method of communication and radicalization more so than a method of galvanizing action in the United States, January 6 marked a significant pivot away from this standard. For example, mainstream social media sites such as Facebook and Twitter, as well as alternative less moderated sites such as Parler and Gab, served as hubs for extremist organizations and resulted in violent action during the march on the U.S. Capitol. Particularly on less regulated sites, insurrectionists shared “conspiracy theories, disinformation, and outright lies about the results of the election” that fueled extremist rhetoric and action.
Additionally, messages surrounding QAnon and Stop the Steal Theories circulated on Facebook with limited internal moderation. On social media sites Parler and Gab, far-right actors shared information on tactics and tools to evade law enforcement at the Capitol building. Extremists widely used social media platforms for organization and mobilization, marking a shift from the more passive uses before January 6.
As of January 4, 2024, 1,265 individuals from all 50 states have been formally charged with crimes. In hundreds of cases, the defendant’s participation in the violent activities of January 6 was identified via social media. Following January 6, criminal charges were filed anywhere from immediately after the event to 36 months later, precipitating far-right extremists’ exodus from mainstream social media. This was due to two factors: far-right extremists pivoted to using social media platforms that granted them more anonymity from law enforcement; and far-right leaders were banned from a variety of popular platforms. These phenomena led to a scattering of far-right or anti-government extremists across the Internet through disparate social media and messaging platforms. Far-right extremists, particularly groups involved on January 6, have generally remained decentralized, focusing on communication via encrypted platforms and emphasizing organizing at the local, rather than national, level in the United States. However, these trends may shift as right-leaning social media regains center stage in 2024 and politicians, activists, and more extreme actors prepare for the 2024 election.
Most political experts anticipate that the 2024 Presidential Election will be similarly polarized and potentially as violent as the 2020 election. For example, as early as June 2020, think tank researchers predicted political violence resulting from the 2020 election, similar to the events that transpired on January 6. Similarly, as the November 2024 election looms, political figures and institutions face regular threats of violence. Per Washington Post reporting, both state and federal officials face a barrage of death threats and swatting incidents, and multiple state capitol buildings were evacuated in January 2024 in response to bomb threats.
The language politicians are using on the campaign trail continues to be heated and insinuate political violence, with former President and Republican candidate Donald Trump stating at a campaign rally in Ohio this month, “If I don’t get elected, it’s going to be a bloodbath. … It’s going to be a bloodbath for the country.” Additionally, even as tech companies pledge to take steps to curb AI-generated deception, disinformation surges on popular social media platforms such as X (formerly known as Twitter). Per scholars at The Brookings Institute, disinformation, when combined with pre-existing societal divides, can lead to violence in the United States. As tech and social media companies face industry-wide layoffs, they lack resources or incentives on their own to predict or counter widespread disinformation and extremist activity. As government and law enforcement entities prepare for activities surrounding the 2024 election, establishing methods to anticipate key trends and extremist movements may be instrumental to preventing events like that of January 6.
As the United States continues what will undoubtedly be an increasingly contentious and polarized election cycle, law enforcement must dedicate resources to analyzing extremist groups’ social media trends in real time. This will enable the government and law enforcement to identify threats in a timely manner and intervene effectively. Law enforcement organizations should focus their analysis on the popular platforms dangerous groups use to grasp the speed at which these groups tend to organize. Once these trends are better understood, law enforcement can craft more targeted and effective responses to planned activity.
Fortunately, the White House has taken steps to address domestic terrorism following the events of January 2021. In June 2023, the White House released an updated National Strategy for Countering Domestic Terrorism Strategic Implementation. The strategy focuses on 1) Developing a Shared Understanding of Domestic Terrorism, 2) Preventing Domestic Terrorism Recruitment and Mobilization, and 3) Disrupting and Deterring Domestic Terrorism. Overall, the strategy centers on improving definitions of domestic terrorism, increasing the capacity for timely Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) and Department of Homeland Security (DHS) analysis on domestic terrorism threats, and increasing information sharing and technical assistance mechanisms with the private sector.
While the strategy and subsequent summits and initiatives to confront long-term contributors to domestic terrorism are welcomed steps, further research and partnerships with both academia and the private sector is needed. More developed public-private partnerships and dedicated funding for academic research labs are critical to better comprehend the root causes of the current and future domestic extremist landscape. One example of such a lab is START at the University of Maryland, which is dedicated to studying terrorism and available responses to terrorism. Additionally, federal agencies such as DHS and state law enforcement entities should consider partnering with the private sector to establish methods, perhaps leveraging machine learning, to analyze prior terrorism data and identify patterns in domestic terrorist activities. A combination of academic and public-private partnerships may help law enforcement learn from 2020-2021 and adequately address the threat posed by the 2024 election.