Image Source: AI-generated (dream.ai)
“The question is no longer whether [artificial intelligence] deepfakes could affect elections, but how influential they will be,” according to experts. None are more prominent in the field of disinformation than the Russians, who have set their sights on Europe and her upcoming elections. As artificial intelligence (AI) stands to accelerate and broaden Russian disinformation campaigns, the United States and the United Kingdom (UK) have an opportunity to use their influence in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) to safeguard Europe (and themselves). With European elections looming and the fate of European funding to Ukraine hanging in the balance, neither the United States nor NATO can afford inaction amidst Russian destabilization efforts.
Numerous reports make it clear that against the backdrop of upcoming U.S. and European elections, Russia will not only repeat its previous hybrid warfare tactics but also adopt AI to assist in its disinformation campaigns. Russia will learn from previous failures and use AI to diversify, deepen, and accelerate its disinformation efforts against key European audiences to both weaken European support for Ukraine’s defense against Russia and destabilize NATO more generally. Russia will seek to accomplish this goal by exacerbating existing social, political, and pan-European concerns or divisions. The cumulative effect is likely to be mistrust of authentic, dependable sources of information; the degradation of grassroots political will to continue financial and/or military support to Ukraine; and a reframing of Russian aggression in Ukraine. If Russia is successful, it will have achieved a meaningful victory over NATO, which will be felt not only by citizens of Europe in terms of degraded democracies but also by under-resourced Ukrainian soldiers on the front lines against Russian aggression.
European Commission Vice President Vera Jourova recently made the case plainly, denouncing Russia’s “multi-million euro weapon of mass manipulation” aimed at disrupting Europe’s June 2024 parliamentary elections. Jourova underscored, “The Russian state has engaged in the war of ideas to pollute our information space with half-truths and lies to create a false image that democracy is no better than autocracy.” These threats parallel threats the United States faces at home, as Russian disinformation has attempted to widen the divide between citizens and political parties. Russia’s aims in Europe will be no different in 2024, and Europe’s weakening resolve to support Ukraine will present Russian President Vladimir Putin with a target that is both critical to his success and too vulnerable to resist.
A Path Forward: Taming the European Elephant in the Room
NATO is committed to countering Russian disinformation, but as Russia increasingly leans on AI for its disinformation campaigns, global leaders in AI, like the United States and the UK, have a corresponding opportunity to lead NATO in Europe’s defense. However, to overcome a perennial challenge, these staunch defenders of Europe will need to address burden sharing.
NATO must establish itself as a proactive force against AI-assisted Russian disinformation – and be capable of bringing cutting-edge, data-driven solutions to member states to advance its goals of propagating truth and facts “online, on air, and in print.” To do so in a way that respects concerns around burden sharing, the United States and the UK can create a new fund inside NATO that matches NATO member contributions aimed at Russian disinformation and propaganda inside Europe. For example, if the United States and the UK jointly provided the equivalent of 500 million USD (almost 400 million pounds sterling) of potential matching funds to NATO, it would enable a total contribution toward European defense of one billion U.S. dollars – if fellow NATO members took up the call to defend their democracies.
The United States and the UK could take this concept a step further. In addition to a matching-funds investment in NATO for countering Russian disinformation and propaganda, the United States and the UK could create another matching-funds tranche aimed at the commercial research and development of tools to detect Russian disinformation “online, on air, and in print.” This type of investment would leverage U.S. and UK dominance in AI for Europe’s benefit and incentivize the type of burden sharing many allies desire while placing the U.S.-UK “special relationship” in the driver’s seat of Europe’s thriving AI innovation space – all for the benefit of European democracies and, by extension, NATO cohesion.
Fighting Fire with Fire: NATO Must Harness AI for Defense
If Russia persists in leveraging AI to erode the foundation upon which NATO rests, NATO cannot stand idly by. That NATO can count two of the world’s AI leaders amongst its ranks is not only a gift but a responsibility. NATO must move from understanding the risk of AI-assisted Russian disinformation to truly fighting back. In February 2022, NATO’s Strategic Communications Centre of Excellence published a report titled “The Role of AI in the Battle Against Disinformation.” The report recognizes that AI could be used to detect and deter disinformation. Other reports make the case even more clearly, stating that AI has already been used to uncover disinformation. The calculus is clear: the United States and the UK must act decisively to strengthen NATO, lead by example, and meaningfully incentivize burden sharing.
Nonetheless, domestic political demands risk posing a roadblock. Beyond the clear benefits that the United States and the UK accrue from a stable cohesive NATO, how exactly can these two AI leaders benefit from such a large investment? The answer is equally clear. What the United States and UK learn in Europe is transferable. In other words, these investments not only position the United States and the UK to lead in AI across Europe and defend NATO, but the lessons learned in Europe can be rapidly applied elsewhere. With the disinformation threat posed by China similarly casting a shadow over upcoming U.S. elections, this dual-use investment might not only be beneficial but timely.
Not since the Cold War has the American and British safeguarding of Europe from Russia’s malign activities presented such a clear benefit to Europe’s security, NATO cohesion and burden sharing, and U.S. and UK economic interests—and simultaneously positioned the United States and the UK to leverage those gains for collective defense against other, global AI-assisted threats. The United States and the UK can lead NATO into a future where AI is used to defend against AI, but to do so, they will need to match rhetoric with investment.
The views and opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the student contributor but do not reflect the opinions or beliefs of other individuals or organizations.
I could not agree more! I am the author of the textbook “101 Questions & Answers About Business Espionage – 2024 Edition” and 3 other books published by Amazon Books. I have seen disinformation attacks here and in Europe for many years. I am retired now and no longer work in the field, but the Russians and others are still active because the attacks are still cost effective. There is no easy answer,
but looking at the Writer, not just the message, helps put the message in perspective.
William (Maxon) Johnson, Ph.D.