Image: NBC News
At around 9:00 PM EST on January 11, news agencies around the world began reporting that the U.S. and five of its allies struck at least twelve military targets in Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen. However, Yemen hardly makes national news, besides coverage of the horrific famine that has gripped the country for almost a decade. Despite consistent U.S. opposition toward the Houthis across the Obama and Trump administrations – even enabling starvation tactics against them – the Yemeni rebels remain relatively unknown to many Americans. Yet when the fundamentalist Yemeni terrorist group seized the British-owned ship Galaxy Leader last November in retaliation for Israel’s actions in Gaza, they achieved what they had been seeking in vain since the Arab Spring revolts: global recognition. On January 3, 2024, when the United States and several other nations issued a joint statement warning the Houthis against further attacks. The United States has thus far shown restraint, not yet targeting ground-based assets in Yemen under Houthi control. This is a wise course of action–we would do well not to derail the UN-led peace process that could finally bring peace to Yemen.
The Houthis have cashed in on Yemen’s geographic advantage, namely, its ability to effectively threaten the Suez Canal shipping lane through the Bab al-Mandab Strait, through which around 12% of global trade passes every year. They have ramped up attacks on commercial shipping in protest of Israel’s invasion of the Gaza Strip. This brings an element of uncertainty into Saudi peace talks with the Houthis, which began in 2021. Saudi Arabia and the rest of the Arab Coalition want out of their costly war in Yemen, seeking to defuse regional tensions with the Houthis’ primary benefactor, Iran.
The United States has thus far opted for a “staunch the bleeding” approach to the Houthi problem—announcing a multinational naval task force to protect commercial vessels via Operation Prosperity Guardian. But internal politicking has already exposed some serious rifts in this coalition of nations. The Saudis and the UAE were initially reluctant to join because they are trying to de-escalate with Yemen and Tehran, and they have a peacetime interest in Yemeni ports and fisheries. Multiple European countries, including Spain, Italy, and France, have declined to participate—a source of embarrassment for the United States. Besides, the Houthis have already achieved the results they wanted since reports suggest that Red Sea commercial traffic is down roughly one-third since last month. Large shipping multinationals, such as MSC and Maersk, are not inclined to take risks with their assets.
America’s off-ramp from this conflict is a diplomatic one, not a military one. The first, and probably most straightforward step, is ensuring that the peace talks between the Arab coalition and the Houthis continue. The Pentagon, to its credit, recognizes that the U.S. escalation of tensions with the Houthis is unwise and runs contrary to the desires of the Saudis, our chief allies in the Red Sea. These attacks are partly motivated towards gaining leverage over peace negotiations with the Arab coalition.
But the Houthis are also striking Red Sea trade out of displeasure with the Israel-Palestine war that has raged since the stomach-turning Hamas attacks on October 7. In the eleven weeks since then, Israel’s campaign in Gaza has killed 20,000 people, roughly one percent of Gaza’s pre-war population. A recent investigation discovered that the IDF’s evidence justifying its attack on Al-Shifa Hospital was in fact, threadbare. Israel is shifting to a “more targeted” prosecution of its war, but the United States needs to ensure that this is not an empty guarantee from Netanyahu’s government.
The United States should defer to the Saudis and let the Yemen peace process continue without further complicating it. At the same time, President Biden should use American leverage over Israel which he has been reluctant to exercise. Since George H.W. Bush, American presidents have become less willing to challenge Israel. The United States has, since 1991, underwritten a large amount of the country’s loans against its own credit rating. If the U.S. government were to halt this arrangement, the interest rate on Israeli government debt would change substantially, with large economic consequences. Biden needs to be willing to wield this cudgel before the situation in the Red Sea deteriorates any further.
That deterioration may already be happening. On January 1, U.S. ships killed 10 Houthi militia members in the Red Sea. Alongside this, Iran deployed a destroyer, the Alborz, to the Bab el-Mandeb in the Southern Region of the Red Sea, which will assuredly complicate operations further. The Americans have levied an ultimatum at the Houthis, reminiscent of a “red line” that Assad ignored in Syria. There is a very credible risk at this point of the Biden administration being baited into another wide-scale Middle East conflict.
Any time a situation like this crops up, one might expect calls for a ground intervention from the hawks in the U.S. government. Encouragingly, though, there seem to be few of the pundit class lobbying behind this incredibly foolish idea. Perhaps these people recognize how unpopular such a war would be, and its potential to grow out of hand very quickly. Perhaps, even, the lessons of history have finally clawed their way to the editorial boards of this country’s finest newspapers. There is some advocacy, though, for a retaliatory air campaign against the Houthis. In all earnestness, what good will this actually do?
The Houthis have been weathering attacks from U.S.-made planes, UAVs, and bombs for eight years. In fact, the Saudis have conducted an estimated 24,000 air raids in Yemen since 2015. Targeting the Houthi military directly is not an easy prospect: many Houthi assets are decentralized and located in the mountainous western Azal region of the country, and many of them are camouflaged against satellite reconnaissance. Finally, if we are not willing to put any boots on the ground (and we really should not be), how could these proposed strikes accomplish any kind of lasting military or political objective? They would be more for theatrics than anything else.
The U.S. destroyer USS Carney successfully shot down 14 Houthi drones on December 16. Earlier, in October, that same destroyer intercepted several anti-ship missiles, also fired by the Houthis. The U.S. Navy has a lot of reasons to be afraid of anti-ship missiles and maritime UAVs: the Ukraine war has exposed how vulnerable navies are to these relatively cheap weapons. But currently, the Houthis lack the radar and Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance (ISR) capabilities needed to credibly threaten U.S. military vessels in the Red Sea with their arsenal.
This is not to say the United States ought not to defend its own vessels, or even any ships, in the Red Sea. Piracy, after all, is a violation of international law. But the Houthis pose minimal threat to armed U.S. vessels. America ought to continue to defend its own ships with Phalanx CIWS platforms and trade ships with VLS missiles. Coordinated international anti-piracy efforts greatly reduced the Somali pirate attacks of the early 2010s, and it is admirable that the United States is attempting to take the lead here. Escalatory strikes by the United States will not make our naval assets any more protected than they already are, they will only jeopardize very fragile negotiations.
The Biden administration should defend our own ships and commercial shipping in the Red Sea, as well as allied vessels as part of its coalition-building effort. But the administration should resist calls for U.S. forces to strike the Houthi ground assets. The negative news out of Yemen obscures the positive–in December, the Saudis and the Houthis agreed to have the UN mediate their peace process, an important milestone that many were hoping for. On the foreign policy front, the United States can stabilize this situation further by pressuring Israel to wind down its prosecution of the war in Gaza. It is time for the United States to tread carefully and get our own house in order, not sow chaos in the Middle East.