Image Source: Diario La Opinión
In early November, the National Liberation Army (Ejército de Liberación Nacional, ELN), one of the oldest and most powerful Colombian guerrillas, claimed responsibility for kidnapping the parents of acclaimed football player Luis Díaz in Barrancas, Colombia. While the ELN released Díaz’s mother soon after the abduction, the guerrillas held Díaz’s father, Luis Manuel “Mane” Díaz, hostage for twelve days. After concerted efforts by the Catholic Church and the United Nations, the ELN finally released Mane on November 10. The ELN’s responsibility in Mane’s kidnapping has significantly impacted the group’s ongoing peace negotiations with the Colombian government.
The Díaz kidnapping indicates a lack of ripeness in reaching a peace deal with the ELN. As the fifth round of negotiations started on December 4, 2023, achieving credible talks will require all actors involved — including the ELN, the Colombian government, Venezuela, and the Colombian population — to meet crucial preconditions that will hopefully raise the chances of peace.
Conditions the ELN Should Respect
Colombian President Gustavo Petro, at the root of a renewed willingness to negotiate with the group, condemned the ELN, stating that its behavior severely threatens the ongoing peace dialogues.
To build trust with the government, the ELN must demonstrate its previously stated intentions to reach peace. This trust includes ensuring ELN sub-units’ compliance with the terms of negotiations to avoid the possibility of acts that may further damage the group’s reputation, such as additional kidnappings. This task is arduous because the ELN’s organizational structure is not hierarchical. Instead, the group has a horizontal structure where various fronts benefit from a certain degree of autonomy, and ELN’s leadership does not have the power or capacity to align them. Moreover, Reuters reports that 40% of ELN members oppose a potential peace agreement, which may disincentivize them from complying with negotiation terms.
Conditions the Colombian Government Should Respect
The ELN justified the abduction for alleged economic needs. This claim is controversial, as the group derives revenues from highly profitable illicit economies such as illegal mining, drug trafficking, and contraband. Although the guerrilla group admitted feeling embarrassed about resorting to kidnapping, it believes it is a necessary practice to ensure that its members can afford food and healthcare. The Colombian government rejects the ELN’s attempt to legitimize abductions. However, the ELN’s future financing, should the group potentially demobilize, is a paramount issue that deserves considerable attention during negotiations. The government negotiating team should propose long-term solutions beyond Petro’s controversial idea of creating an international fund for the group. To complement these efforts, the government should engage in extensive dialogues regarding ELN-demanded structural reforms.
To better predispose the ELN to negotiations, the Colombian government should mitigate the high risks that demobilizing groups face in peace processes. Surrendering weapons is hazardous, even more so when considering the government’s past broken promises. The state’s failure to implement key guarantees made during the peace agreement with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) led to the murder of at least 355 demilitarized members since 2016. To overcome the impasse that this precedent represents for peace with the ELN, the government should give tangible guarantees that it will thoroughly respect a potential agreement. Such guarantees should reassure the ELN that the peace will survive through diverse presidencies, which requires the skeptical political opposition to embrace President Petro’s initiative. The recent Constitutional Court’s decision to legitimize Petro’s total peace, while rejecting measures originally contested by a political opposition mainly represented by the center-right party Centro Democrático, may be an opportunity to enhance different political views’ buy-in.
The Role of Venezuela and the Colombian Society
Mane’s kidnapping also impacts the role of Venezuela and the Colombian population, which are crucial actors in successfully achieving peace.
Due to Venezuela’s role as a safe haven for the ELN, Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro is a key guarantor to the peace process. Third-party guarantors, among other things, can help conflict parties overcome fear of noncompliance from other actors. To be a credible peace guarantor, Venezuela should leverage its relationship with the ELN and demand compliance with agreed-upon measures during negotiation rounds. By positively committing to Petro’s peace process with the ELN, Maduro can re-engage with the international arena after years of isolation.
On the other hand, the Colombian population’s endorsement of the negotiations with the ELN would increase the likelihood of a successful peace negotiation. Mane’s case infuriated Colombian society, as kidnapping is among the most repudiated practices in the country and a source of national trauma. The ELN’s disregard for governmental and popular requests to refrain from abducting civilians corrodes confidence in the peace process’s legitimacy. If society sees the ELN as an actor unworthy of negotiating with, any potential resulting peace agreement will be precarious. Mane’s kidnapping illustrates the current immaturity of credible peace talks with the ELN. To restore hope for an agreement that has seemed impossible for decades, the ELN and the Colombian government must meet imperative preconditions. Additionally, the support of Venezuela and Colombian society is crucial in legitimizing and forging a long-lasting deal. Colombia has attempted to deliver a peace agreement with the ELN numerous times without success. However, more committed negotiations may finally achieve this goal.