By: Christine Bang-Andersen, Columnist
Photo Credit: Getty Images
In yet another act of political provocation, this time towards Japan, Russian President Vladimir Putin delivered an offer that could only be refused during a September 12 speech at the Eastern Economic Forum alongside Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. The Russian president raised eyebrows when speaking about the long-disputed Kuril Islands, an island chain located between the Russian Kamchatka Peninsula and the Japanese island of Hokkaido currently under Russian administration but subject to a pre-WWII territorial claim by Japan. Sitting to the left of his Japanese counterpart, Putin brazenly proposed signing a peace deal with Japan “without any preconditions”.[1] Putin’s cocksure demeanor obscured the lack of progress on the Kuril Islands issue over the past 71 years, and the political reality that signing a deal without first settling the underlying ownership dispute would solidify the islands’ status as Russian territory and result in Abe’s political demise.
[2]Putin’s proposal of such an unrealistic option marks another entry in his fabled history of “trolling” world leaders, as he did when he brought his black Labrador Retriever Konni into a publicly broadcasted meeting with dog-phobic Angela Merkel.[3] What does Putin actually have to gain from making a disillusioned suggestion like this? And what would it mean for the parties to sign such a deal?
Japan will not accept the islands as Russian territory and continues to negotiate on the basic principle that Japan will only sign a peace treaty after settling the attribution of the islands.[4] Abe has made resolving this issue a main priority in his tenure as Prime Minister, shifting Japan’s maximalist demands for full sovereignty over all four islands to a more diplomatically oriented strategy focusing on economic engagement in the area as a mode of collaboration between the two countries.[5] In an attempt to loosen up Russia with economic incentives, Japan has engaged in a series of joint economic projects on fishing, agriculture, tourism, green energy and waste management in the Russian Far East,[6] with the ultimate goal of achieving at least a joint administrative arrangement between the two nations. Taking Putin’s deal would mean sacrificing this entire operation and giving in to Russian pressure to accept the status quo.
On the other hand, Russia rejects that the territorial dispute needs to be concluded before signing a peace deal. Putin’s statement serves as a heavy-handed hint to Japan that it should simply accept Russian sovereignty on the Kuril Islands.[7] Oddly, Putin’s statement also came just two days after he called it both unlikely and naive to think that the territorial dispute would be settled in the nearest future, yet again signaling that his flipflop in stance is not a sign of renewed commitment to world peace, but rather an easy jab at Russia’s neighbor to the Southeast.[8] Russia continues to believe that the best way to move forward is by establishing permanent Russian ownership of the island chain, while continuing joint Russo-Japanese economic activities and sustained Japanese investments on the islands. [9] These economic markets are growing in importance for an increasingly isolated Russia in search of new economic partners, following the loss of significant trading partners in the West.[10]
Despite Japanese attempts to soften Russia’s stance with economic incentives, their efforts have proven to be lackluster and Russian stubbornness remains the same.[11] Following Tuesday’s debacle, Abe expressed on September 14th that he will meet with Putin again for more talks throughout the year to discuss the proposal of signing a peace deal. However, Abe has made it clear that he will not sign anything until the territorial dispute has been settled.[12] The question that remains is, why does Putin continue to provoke, when his focus should be on maintaining Russian sovereignty of the Kuril Islands and sustained Japanese investment in an economically neglected region? After rallying his supporters in 2014, under the premise that the annexation of Crimea was a sign of love for the motherland, losing Russian territory in the Pacific would be hard to explain.[13] Some Russian analysts have pointed at Putin’s sudden suggestion as a reflection of his perception of Japan as a nation of declining value.[14] However, considering the inconsistencies in Putin’s position on the matter, expressing quite the opposite opinion just days in advance, the Russian president’s suggestion seems less so like an element of grand strategy, and more so an expression of Putin’s well-known troll persona. Muddled in personal desires to maintain domestic political standing in conjunction with global territorial aspirations, everything suggests that this remaining point of contention from a war long since passed will not be concluded any time soon and that, once again, Putin’s word needs to be taken with a grain of salt.
[1] “In Surprise Move, Putin Proposes Signing Peace Pact With Japan This Year”, RFE/RL, September 12th, 2018, https://www.rferl.org/a/putin-proposes-signing-peace-treaty-with-japan-this-year-without-preconditions-/29485459.html.
[2] “Vladimir Putin offers Kuril Islands peace deal to Japan’s Abe”, Deutsche Welle, September 12th, 2018, https://www.dw.com/en/vladimir-putin-offers-kuril-islands-peace-deal-to-japans-abe/a-45459525.
[3] Tim Hume, “Vladimir Putin: I didn’t mean to scare Angela Merkel with my dog”, CNN, January 12th, 2016, https://www.cnn.com/2016/01/12/europe/putin-merkel-scared-dog/index.html.
[4] “Vladimir Putin offers Kuril Islands peace deal to Japan’s Abe”, Deutsche Welle, September 12th, 2018, https://www.dw.com/en/vladimir-putin-offers-kuril-islands-peace-deal-to-japans-abe/a-45459525.
[5] “Russia, Japan: Putin Tries to Tempt Abe With a Surprise Offer”, Stratfor, September 12th, 2018, https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/russia-japan-putin-tries-tempt-abe-surprise-offer.
[6] Robin Harding & Kathrin Hille, “Russia and Japan agree economic deal on disputed islands”, Financial Times, December 16th, 2016, https://www.ft.com/content/1905fc24-c360-11e6-9bca-2b93a6856354.
[7] “Russia, Japan: Putin Tries to Tempt Abe With a Surprise Offer”, Stratfor, September 12th, 2018, https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/russia-japan-putin-tries-tempt-abe-surprise-offer.
[8] “’Naive’ to expect quick settling of island dispute with Japan: Putin”, Straits Times, September 10th, 2018,
[9] “Russia, Japan: Putin Tries to Tempt Abe With a Surprise Offer”, Stratfor, September 12th, 2018, https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/russia-japan-putin-tries-tempt-abe-surprise-offer.
[10] “Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, Russian President Vladimir Putin agree to promote economic programmes on disputed Kuril islands”, South China Morning Post, September 10th, 2018, https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/east-asia/article/2163628/japans-prime-minister-shinzo-abe-russian-president-vladimir.
[11] “Russia, Japan: Putin Tries to Tempt Abe With a Surprise Offer”, Stratfor, September 12th, 2018, https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/russia-japan-putin-tries-tempt-abe-surprise-offer.
[12] Associated Press, “Abe says will talk more on peace treaty, islands with Putin”, The Washington Post, September 14th, 2018, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/abe-says-will-talk-more-on-peace-treaty-islands-with-putin/2018/09/14/a34773d4-b7e9-11e8-ae4f-2c1439c96d79_story.html?utm_term=.83b23608b5ae.
[13] Noack, Rick, “Russia is seeking peace with Japan. (Wait, they’re still at war?), The Washington Post, September 12th, 2018, ”https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2018/09/12/russia-is-seeking-peace-with-japan-wait-theyre-still-war/?utm_term=.ee2393c29f57.
[14] Furukawa, Eiji, “Нихон кэйдзай (Япония): Для Путина снизилась ценность Японии. Он неожиданно предложил подписать мирный договор”, INOSMI, September 13th, 2018, https://inosmi.ru/politic/20180913/243236173.html.